Panorama of renewable energy producers listed in Paris

10 bets on renewable

La prise de conscience de l’enjeu du réchauffement climatique, les objectifs politiques et l’explosion des prix des énergies fossiles nourrissent un fort intérêt pour les énergies renouvelables (ENR). Rien qu’en France, la Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Énergie, adoptée en 2020, prévoit de doubler la capacité de production d’électricité renouvelable d’ici 2028 pour atteindre la neutralité carbone à 2050. Production d’électricité et de chaleur décarbonée, captation et transformation des émanations de méthane, massification de la production d’hydrogène vert sont autant de pistes à suivre pour atteindre cette ambition.

A côté des grands énergéticiens tels Engie ou EDF, des producteurs de gaz tel Air Liquide et des majors pétroliers qui investissent massivement dans le renouvelable, existent en France une dizaine de producteurs d’ENR cotés de plus petite taille. Ils complètent l’action des plus grands, souvent en symbiose avec eux, en apportant innovation, agilité et proximité. Nous avons retenu : Agripower, Charwood Energy, Groupe OKwind, Haffner Energy, Hydrogène de France, La Française de l’Energie, Lhyfe, Neoen, Voltalia et Waga Energy.

Nous avons choisi de décrire leur positionnement et leur stratégie afin d’aider les investisseurs à discerner, au-delà d’une tendance porteuse, les facteurs clés de succès propres à chacun d’eux. Si le potentiel de croissance est bien présent dans tous les segments, les profils de risque varient fortement. Les valorisations traduisent le potentiel de croissance et de rentabilité et sont, en général, élevées.

Upload the report

Publication EN

PEUG – H1 with 2 speeds

At the end of the first half of 2022, NAV stood at €4.78bn and NAV per share at €192, compared with €235 at the end of 2021, a decline of 17.2%, dividend reinvested. Over the period, the portfolio’s diversification into unlisted investments and the high dividend payments made by Stellantis offset part of the decline in the share price of listed holdings (-31.4%).

Stellantis, 34.9% of the group’s GAV, published dynamic half-yearly results despite a hostile economic climate. Orpéa, with 1.3% of the group’s GAV at 30 June, continued its descent into the stock market. A new management team is implementing a recovery strategy, but the model is being called into question.

The group’s discount reached a historically high level of 55% (+8pts) compared to 31/12/21. The share price remains correlated to Stellantis, while the evolution of NAV demonstrates the resilience of an investment mix that is less and less exposed to market volatility. However, the increase in the discount is less marked than that of its peer group (+25 points), which is impacted by investors’ distrust of more aggressive investment models.

With an unchanged discount, our central scenario shows an upside potential of 29%, which would rise to 71% with a reduction of the discount to 40%.

Update ANR – Sept 22 VA

Publication EN Publications

Mid year update

PEUG will publish its half-yearly NAV on 13 September.

Despite the increase in the relative weight of unlisted investments in the NAV (from 15% in 2007 to 36% at the end of 2021), the NAV at 30/06 will be impacted by the fall in the financial markets. Taking into account only the listed investments, the NAV would have fallen by 23% at 30/06/22 to €180 per share, although less than the share price (-30%). The discount has widened to 52%.

Decisions recently taken by Orpéa, of which PEUG is the 2nd shareholder, during the first half of the year seem to us to be in line with the stakes.

Upload the report

Publication EN Publications

Peugeot Invest – Annual shareholders’meeting

Continued evolution of the board

The ordinary and extraordinary general meeting of 12 May 2022 was an opportunity for the group to continue the rejuvenation of its board of directors and to communicate on its most recent investments.

Upload the report

Publication EN

Peugeot Invest – 2021 NAV

2021, a record year

PI’s NAV increased by 32.2% in 2021. All types of investments contributed, with Stellantis taking the lead. Investments reached the high level of €726 million, exclusively in unlisted assets which represent 62% of the Investment GAV. Divestments and dividends received covered most of the financing needs.

Stellantis published very good results confirming the success of the merger. Carlos Tavares presented his 9-year plan to transform the group into a “sustainable mobility tech company”, structured for “all times” with a break-even point low enough to face all situations. He aims to double revenues to €300 billion with a double-digit margin.

Our central valuation scenario takes into account 1/ the strong increase in uncertainties arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which leads us to apply a 50% discount to the consensus price targets for listed companies. 2/ In the specific case of Orpéa, we are retaining the current share price. Beyond the reputational crisis, the profitability of the business model will, in our opinion, remain questionable for a long time. Excluding these elements, our central scenario is based on an annual IRR of 15% for unlisted assets. This results in a potential NAV of €263 per share, i.e. an upside of 26%. The application of a 30% discount instead of the current 45% would generate a substantial upside on the share price.

Upload the report

Publication EN

Peugeot Invest – Focus on private equity

Focus on private equity

PI implemented a portfolio construction strategy with a regular annual commitment approach starting in 2014 and then formed a dedicated team. These developments have accelerated since 2017. The group has sown a lot and the value of private equity fund shares has quadrupled since then.

The PI strategy is structured around a limited number of partners with whom the group seeks to build ongoing relationships. The group invests mainly in Europe and the United States in Growth and LBO funds, mainly in the Tech and Healthcare sectors.

PI does not yet report on the performance of its investments. We modeled recent investment flows and expected distributions starting in 2021 over an 8-year period. Based on the average multiples paid and exit levels achieved in private equity over the last few years, we calculated the expected investment flows and distributions. We conclude that the group will benefit in the coming years from repayments in excess of its capital calls, unlike the last 5 years.

Upload the report

Publication EN

Peugeot Invest – Initiation report

A famous unknown

Peugeot Invest is a structure on the move that has invested massively over the last 5 years to transform itself.

The proportion of unlisted assets has doubled to 1/3 of its total Gross Asset Value (GAV) as of 6/30/21. It should start to enter the harvest phase in 2022. Stellantis (43% of GAV) succeeded PSA with an unmatched risk profile, balance sheet and potential. These 2 factors will transform PI’s earnings profile, whose dividend payout capacity could, we believe, double.

This change is being ignored by the market, which continues to apply a 45% discount to spot NAV, the highest in the European holding universe. Despite a narrow free float (20%), investor perception could change thanks to more active communication and the entry into the harvesting phase of unlisted assets.

Upload the report