The 2025 NAV shows a 5.6% decline (including dividend) to €169.2 per share. The positive contribution from Investments (+14.1% at constant exchange rates) was offset by a negative currency effect and by the decline in the valuation of automotive assets within Peugeot 1810.
The discount on NAV is 53%. PEUG is changing its strategy by increasing portfolio concentration, as shown by the refocusing of its investment fund portfolio (sale of 35 funds), the disposal of shareholdings and co-investments, and the redeployment of funds into companies in priority sectors. In terms of valuation, our central scenario shows double-digit upside potential based on the current market value of listed assets.
The discount to 2024 NAV remains high. The new management team is currently reviewing the portfolio, which we believe will lead to simplification and refocusing. Announcements on the evolution of the strategy are expected around the May AGM. In terms of valuation, our central scenario shows a 2-digit upside potential for listed assets at their current price.
PEUG recently underwent a change of CEO with the arrival of JC Douin at the end of October, and a change of governance with the appointment of Edouard Peugeot as Chairman (May 2025), succeeding his father. A new team is now in place to manage the holding company, which continues to evolve.
In H1-24, NAV per share came to €226.7 vs. €238.7 at the end of 2023, showing a decline of 3.7% dividend attached. This is mainly attributable to the fall in Stellantis’ share price, which reported a sharp decline in the first half of the year.`
In Europe, the automotive industry is suffering from Chinese competition, weak demand and pressure on prices. This recently prompted BMW and VW to revise their annual outlooks downwards. Against this backdrop, Stellantis shares have lost over 50% since their March highs.
In H1, PEUG carried out several disposals, generating €437m in income. The group received €369m in dividends, including €347.6m for Stellantis. Net debt fell significantly to €374m, giving an LTV of 6%. PEUG has nearly €1bn in undrawn credit lines.
Despite the 59% rise in Stellantis last year, 54% of the 2023 ABR (ie. research note from 23/03/2024), PEUG’s discount is 60%, an all-time record reached in 2012/2013 when Stellantis did not exist. Is this a return to square one?
Traditionally, PEUG’s performance has been correlated with that of the car manufacturer, but this was not at all the case last year. In addition, PEUG suffered the resounding bankruptcy of Orpea, followed by that of Signa (unlisted property), which was fully written down in 2023 (€434m). In our view, these setbacks cost Chief Executive Bertrand Finet his job and probably cast a pall over the Group’s management in the minds of investors.
NAV per share for H1-23 rose by 12.4%, dividends reinvested. This trend was driven by listed holdings, despite the downward revision of property assets. The year 2023 ended with a rally in the equity markets against a backdrop of falling interest rates. We are taking advantage of this movement to highlight the operating performance and prospects of 3 listed holdings that stood out. Despite the economic slowdown observed since 2023, China (and Asia) represent growth drivers for each of these 3 groups. It should be noted, however, that any downturn in Chinese growth will have a negative impact on the perception of Forvia and SEB, which have a strong presence on this continent (29% of their sales).
In H1-23, NAV per share stood at €221.3, compared with €199.5 at end-2022, up 12.4% with dividends reinvested. Listed investments outperformed the markets, thanks in particular to Stellantis (+31% ytd), the valuation of co-investments was boosted by the sale of Polyplus (gene therapy, multiple of 3.8x, IRR: 62%) to Sartorius, and that of investment funds was stable. This performance was achieved despite the downward revision of property assets (11% of the GAV at the end of 2022).
Net debt came to €862m, including €152m for the investment in Rothschild & Co in H2. LTV stood at 14%, down on H1, which bodes well for the future. It should be remembered that all debt is at a fixed rate.
The Group’s discount remains high at 54%, illustrating investors’ mistrust of investment companies with low liquidity. Management is aware of this situation and may consider buying back shares to try to reduce it. Compared with other comparable companies, PEUG’s stock market performance was satisfactory in H1-2023 (+13%).
With an unchanged discount, our central scenario shows a potential upside of 31%. Upload the report
At the end of 2022, the NAV reached €5.9bn or €199.5 per share (- 14%). Dividends received amounted to €286m, driven by Stellantis (€170m). Net debt was €885m, €261m lower than at the end of 2021, giving an LTV of 16%. This was achieved despite €329m of investments, including €200m of commitments to private equity funds, as expected. Asset disposals amounted to €532m (investments and co-investments).
The strategy, visible since 2017, to accelerate in the non-listed sector is reflected in a resilient GAV Investments (-10% in 2022 despite the collapse of Orpéa). It is divided between listed and unlisted holdings for 29%, co-investments for 19% and funds for 14%.
In February 2023, PEUG sold its 6.3% stake in the holding company of Tikehau Capital for €100m(E). PEUG is also participating in the recomposition of Rothschild & Cie’s shareholding via the takeover bid launched by its holding company Concordia (€150m(E)). Lastly, the group benefited from the public tender offer announced by Lisi, followed by a capital reduction by the holding company CID. This should enable it to significantly increase the liquidity of its exposure.
PEUG’s valuation does not take into account the evolution of its portfolio and its resistance. The discount to NAV is 55%, the highest in our sample of peers.
PEUG will publish its half-yearly NAV on March 22.
After a 17.2% decline in H1, the NAV at 31/12 should benefit from the 7.2% increase in listed assets in H2 (53% of the GAV).
PEUG has not communicated on new investments but had indicated in September that it was selling assets at satisfactory multiples. The unlisted portion of NAV should therefore not disappoint.
Orpéa has become insignificant in terms of weight, but remains an important issue in terms of refinancing. This should be resolved in the coming months.
In H2 22, PEUG’s share price rose by only 3% (-28% over the year), showing a discount of 56% to the spot NAV of €200,4.
